Atmospheric CO2 Change

Simple Equation of Multi-Decadal Atmospheric Carbon Concentration Change

ABSTRACT

Surplus CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by natural sinks at rate, proportional to the surplus CO2 concentration. In other words, it undergoes exponential decay with a single decay constant. This conclusion is rigorously proven, using first principles and relatively recent observations of oceans. Historical data for CO2 concentrations and emissions from 1958–2013 are then used to calculate the half-life of the surplus concentration. This theoretically derived formula is found to be an excellent match to the historical CO2 concentrations over the measurement period. Furthermore, the “initial” CO2 concentration in the formula came out to be very close to the likely “pre-industrial” CO2 concentration. Based on the used datasets, the half-life of the surplus concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is found to be approximately 40 years.

Full Article: defyccc.com/docs/se/MDACC-Halperin.pdf

Supporting Material (data and software as Excel file): defyccc.com/docs/se/MDACC-Halperin-Supporting-Material.xlsx


Cite as:

Halperin Ari, 2015. Simple Equation of Multi-Decadal Atmospheric Carbon Concentration Change, defyccc.com, defyccc.com/se


Article’s History

Originally published on November 24, 2015.

The article is archived at  www.webcitation.org/6dJdf6BpL
The supporting material is archived at  www.webcitation.org/6dJeovZD7

Author’s comment posted on December 3, 2015.
This page is archived at www.webcitation.org/6dWPiCJlD on December 4, 2015


AGU Index Terms (November 29, 2015)

1600 GLOBAL CHANGE
…. 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
…. 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
…. 1620 Climate dynamics (0429, 3309)
…. 1631 Land/atmosphere interactions (1218, 1843, 3322)
…. 1635 Oceans (1616, 3305, 4215, 4513)

3300 ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES
…. 3305 Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)
…. 3309 Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408)
…. 3322 Land/atmosphere interactions (1218, 1631, 1843, 4301)
…. 3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312, 4301, 4504)

0400 BIOGEOSCIENCES
…. 0426 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions (0315)
…. 0428 Carbon cycling (4806)
…. 4800 OCEANOGRAPHY: BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL (0460)
…. 4806 Carbon cycling (0428)
…. 4928 Global climate models (1626, 3337)

Web of Science Categories (November 29, 2015): OCEANOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES, GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS, METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES


Closed for Comments

One thought on “Atmospheric CO2 Change

  1. The article contains an estimate of the half-life of the surplus atmospheric CO2 concentration, using the official datasets. The author takes notice that these datasets are biased because of underreporting of the anthropogenic CO2 release since UNFCCC, 1992. This bias might have caused exaggerated estimate of the half-life.

    The author thinks that the half-life of the surplus atmospheric CO2 concentration is between 30 and 40 years. The most likely value is 35 years. Corresponding D0 = 267 ppm.

    This comment does not affect other results and conclusions of the article.

    (Comment ID: H2015#1)

Leave a Reply